New Zealand is facing a period of political uncertainty after a closely contested general election left the country's two main political blocs without a decisive advantage.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has declined to declare victory, despite preliminary figures placing his National Party and its existing coalition partners slightly ahead of the opposition.
Speaking to supporters in Auckland on Saturday, Luxon said his party had a possible route to forming the next government but acknowledged that the outcome remained uncertain.
The election has produced one of the tightest parliamentary contests in recent years, with the final distribution of seats potentially determining whether the incumbent government can secure another term.
A narrow advantage for the governing coalition
Preliminary results reported by the Associated Press, with more than 95% of votes counted, indicated that National, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First could secure 67 seats in a parliament projected to have 130 members.
A minimum of 66 seats is required to command a parliamentary majority.
The opposition grouping, led by the Labour Party under Chris Hipkins, was projected to hold 56 seats alongside the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori.
Although the figures give the conservative bloc a narrow lead, they do not settle the question of who will govern. The remaining votes could alter the balance, particularly because special votes have historically benefited left-leaning parties.
Smaller parties gain influence
The election has also demonstrated the growing influence of parties outside New Zealand's traditional political establishment.
The centrist Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, crossed the five per cent threshold required for parliamentary representation and was projected to win seven seats.
Its entry into Parliament could make it an important participant in discussions about government formation if the existing blocs cannot secure a reliable majority.
Wong has indicated that her party is willing to discuss arrangements with either side. However, Luxon has ruled out forming a government with Opportunity.
The Green Party also recorded a strong performance, with preliminary projections suggesting it could secure 16 seats.
Economic concerns shaped the campaign
The election campaign was dominated by household financial pressures, unemployment and concerns about the country's economic performance.
New Zealand has been recovering slowly from an extended period of weak economic growth. Rising living costs and pressure on household budgets have contributed to dissatisfaction with the country's major political parties.
Both National and Labour received less than 30% of the party vote in the preliminary results, reflecting the difficulty they faced in attracting decisive support.
The results also suggest that smaller parties have become increasingly important in determining the direction of national politics.
Final results could take weeks
The election count is not yet complete. Special votes, including ballots cast by New Zealanders living overseas or voting outside their registered electorates, remain to be processed.
These votes are expected to be included in the official results scheduled for publication on 27 November.
Once the final figures are confirmed, political parties may need several weeks to negotiate coalition arrangements before a new government is established.
For Luxon and Hipkins, the immediate challenge is therefore not only to interpret the election outcome but also to secure enough parliamentary support to govern.
