For years, Benjamin Netanyahu has been one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics. But as his political future becomes increasingly uncertain, a bigger question is emerging: would his departure really change the direction Israel has taken?
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The results of Israel's October 2026 election have weakened Netanyahu's political position, leaving his bloc short of the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-member Knesset.
His Likud-led alliance secured 53 seats, while the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot won 48. Arab-led parties took the remaining 19 seats.
The result has created another complicated political situation, with negotiations over the formation of a new government presenting significant challenges.
Although Netanyahu's opponents have an opportunity to take power, their political differences could make it difficult to agree on a common direction.
Even if Netanyahu eventually leaves office, however, the far-right movement that became a powerful part of his government is unlikely to lose its influence overnight.
How the far right became so powerful
Netanyahu's decision to bring Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich into his governing coalition in 2022 gave Israel's far right an opportunity to exercise influence from within government.
Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit party, became national security minister, while Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionist Party, took charge of the finance ministry and gained additional responsibilities relating to the occupied West Bank.
Their positions gave them more than political visibility. They provided access to government institutions, public resources and decision-making powers that could be used to advance their political agendas.
Smotrich became particularly influential in matters concerning Israeli settlements in the West Bank. His role helped strengthen administrative structures overseeing settlements and advance policies that have drawn strong criticism from Palestinians and the international community.
Ben-Gvir, meanwhile, became a prominent figure in Israel's approach to policing, prisons and national security. His hardline positions on Palestinians and support for tougher measures have made him one of the most controversial members of Netanyahu's government.
These changes are important because government policies and institutional arrangements do not necessarily disappear when the ministers responsible for them leave office.
Two politicians, different kinds of influence
Although Ben-Gvir and Smotrich share a hardline nationalist outlook, their political influence has developed in different ways.
Ben-Gvir has built much of his public profile through outspoken statements, political confrontation and a strong appeal to voters who support tougher policies on security and Palestinians.
Analyst Arie Perliger of the University of Massachusetts Lowell suggests that being pushed out of government could even work in Ben-Gvir's favour. Outside power, he could present himself as a politician fighting an establishment that is unwilling to go far enough in pursuing his agenda.
Smotrich's influence is more closely tied to the machinery of government. His responsibilities within the finance ministry and the Defence Ministry have allowed him to influence budgets, administrative decisions and settlement policy.
That distinction could become important if a new government takes office. Ben-Gvir may be able to maintain his political profile from the opposition benches, while Smotrich could lose some of the direct authority that has allowed him to advance his policies.
However, removing them from government would not automatically reverse the decisions made during their time in office.
What does this mean for Palestinians?
For Palestinians, the question of who leads Israel is about much more than a change of prime minister.
Settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, violence against Palestinian communities, restrictions on prisoners and the treatment of Palestinian citizens of Israel remain deeply contested issues.
Under Netanyahu's coalition, the far right has pushed for policies that critics say have further undermined Palestinian rights and prospects for an independent state.
The revival of the controversial E1 settlement project in 2025, announced by Smotrich, was another example of the government's determination to expand Israeli settlement activity.
Critics warn that developments in the area could further divide the West Bank and make the creation of a viable Palestinian state more difficult.
Ben-Gvir has also supported tougher legislation and policies targeting Palestinians, including measures relating to the death penalty.
For many Palestinians, these developments have reinforced the fear that political changes in Israel may not bring meaningful improvements to their lives.
Former Palestinian lawmaker Aida Touma-Suleiman has also raised concerns about the growing normalisation of racism and hostility towards Palestinians in Israeli public life.
Her criticism points to a problem that goes beyond individual politicians: political attitudes can become deeply rooted in society, making them difficult to reverse through elections alone.
Why the far right may remain influential
The far right's future does not depend entirely on whether Netanyahu remains prime minister.
Analyst Roi Zur of the University of Essex estimates that the political movements represented by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have support from around 10 per cent of Israeli voters.
That may not be enough to govern independently, but it gives them a meaningful place in a political system where small parties can become important coalition partners.
This is particularly relevant because forming a government in Israel often requires several parties to work together. Larger political blocs may therefore find themselves negotiating with smaller parties whose support comes with significant political demands.
The current election has once again exposed the difficulties of building a majority across Israel's divided political landscape.
Even a government formed without Netanyahu could struggle to reverse his coalition's policies if doing so risks creating new political divisions or threatening its parliamentary support.
Netanyahu's departure, if it happens, could mark an important moment in Israeli politics. But it should not automatically be seen as the beginning of a completely different political era.
The far right has gained influence through elections, government appointments, legislation and control of important institutions. Its supporters will remain part of the political debate, regardless of who occupies the prime minister's office.
A new government would therefore face a difficult choice: maintain some of the existing policies to preserve political stability, or attempt to reverse them despite the resistance that could follow.
For Palestinians, the wider international community and Israelis who want a different political direction, the real test will be whether a change in leadership leads to changes in policy.
Netanyahu may eventually leave the political stage, but the movement that helped define his government is not going away so easily. Reversing its influence could take far longer than replacing the prime minister.
