The popular online betting platform Polymarket has assigned an 82% likelihood to the approval of XRP ETFs in 2025, following Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. presidential election and a reshuffling of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Currently, bettors are optimistic about XRP becoming the third cryptocurrency to receive ETF approval in the U.S., joining Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Throughout January, users on Polymarket consistently estimated a 60% or greater chance of the SEC approving a spot XRP ETF in 2025, with a 52% likelihood of approval by July 31, 2025.
Source: polymarket
At present, XRP is trading at $3.02, with a significant trading volume drop of 51.37%. Approval of an ETF could enhance market sentiment. Notable asset managers like Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares have already filed applications for a spot XRP ETF with the SEC.
These applications were previously ignored under the Biden administration and Gary Gensler’s leadership. However, the new SEC leadership is expected to usher in changes. Mark Udeya’s willingness to adapt has resulted in a rise in ETF applications for various cryptocurrencies, not just XRP. The latest is Grayscale, which recently sought to convert its XRP trust into an XRP ETF on the NYSE.
The ongoing legal conflict between Ripple and the SEC continues to influence these ETF discussions. An approval could signify a resolution to this complicated relationship.
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