Abahanga mu bumenyi bw’ikirere baravuga ko umwaka wa 2026 ushobora kuba umwe mu myaka yashyushye cyane mu mateka, mu gihe abayobozi b’ibihugu n’impuguke batangiye ibiganiro bigamije gushaka ingamba zo guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.
Raporo y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ushinzwe iteganyagihe n’ikirere (WMO) yasohotse ku wa 9 Ugushyingo 2026 igaragaza ko uyu mwaka ushobora kuzarangira uri mu myaka ine yashyushye cyane kuva ibipimo by’ubushyuhe bw’Isi bitangira gukorwa ahagana mu 1850.
Iyi raporo igaragaza ko hagati ya Mutarama na Nzeri 2026, ubushyuhe mpuzandengo ku Isi bwari hejuru ho dogere Celsius 1,47 ugereranyije n’igihe cyabanjirije inganda, kizwi nka pre-industrial period.
WMO ivuga ko buri mwaka mu myaka 12 ishize, harimo na 2026, uri mu myaka 12 yashyushye cyane kuva ibipimo byatangira gukorwa.
2026 ishobora guca agahigo k’ubushyuhe
Ibyegeranyo by’abashakashatsi bitanga amahirwe atandukanye ku kuba 2026 yaba umwaka ushyushye kurusha iyindi yose.
Ishami rya Copernicus rishinzwe gukurikirana imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu Muryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi ryatangaje ko 2026 ishobora kuba umwaka wa kabiri ushyushye cyane, nyuma ya 2024 ikomeje gufata umwanya wa mbere.
Iteganyagihe ryaryo rigaragaza ko hari amahirwe agera kuri 20% y’uko 2026 izangana cyangwa ikarenga ubushyuhe bwari bwapimwe mu 2024. Iri shami kandi rivuga ko 2026 ishobora kuba umwaka wa kabiri urenze urugero rwa dogere Celsius 1,5 ugereranyije n’igihe cyabanjirije inganda.
Ku rundi ruhande, ubushakashatsi bwa Carbon Brief bwakozwe hifashishijwe ibipimo bitandatu by’ubushyuhe bw’Isi bwagaragaje ko hari amahirwe agera kuri 67% y’uko 2026 yarenga 2024 ikaba umwaka ushyushye kurusha indi yose.
Iri tandukaniro rishingiye ku buryo butandukanye ibigo bikoresha mu gukusanya no gusesengura amakuru y’ubushyuhe. Bityo, umwanya wa nyuma wa 2026 mu myaka yashyushye cyane uzamenyekana neza nyuma y’uko umwaka urangira, ibigo bitandukanye bigatangaza imibare yabyo.
El Niño iri kongera ubushyuhe
Abahanga bagaragaza ko kimwe mu bintu biri kugira uruhare mu kongera ubushyuhe muri iki gihe ari imiterere y’ikirere izwi nka El Niño.
El Niño ni igihe amazi yo mu gice cyo hagati n’icy’iburasirazuba cy’inyanja ya Pasifika ashyuha kurusha ibisanzwe, bigatuma ubushyuhe bwiyongera mu kirere kandi bikagira ingaruka ku miterere y’ibihe mu bice bitandukanye by’Isi.
Carbon Brief ivuga ko El Niño iri gukomera, ku buryo ishobora kugira uruhare rukomeye mu kongera ubushyuhe muri 2026 no mu 2027.
Icyakora, abahanga bashimangira ko ubushyuhe bw’igihe kirekire buterwa ahanini n’iyiyongera ry’imyuka ihumanya ikirere iterwa n’ibikorwa bya muntu, birimo gutwika amakara, peteroli na gaz.
Raporo ya WMO na yo igaragaza ko ubushyuhe bukomeje kwigaragaza mu nyanja no mu kirere, mu gihe urubura rwo ku misozi miremire n’ibarafu yo ku mpera z’Isi bikomeje gushonga, bigatuma amazi y’inyanja azamuka.
COP31 yateraniye muri Turukiya
Ibi bibazo biri mu by’ingenzi biganirwaho mu nama mpuzamahanga y’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ku mihindagurikire y’ikirere, COP31, yatangiye ku wa 9 Ugushyingo 2026 i Antalya muri Turukiya.
Iyi nama izamara iminsi kugeza ku wa 20 Ugushyingo, ihuriza hamwe abayobozi, intumwa z’ibihugu, abahanga mu by’ikirere n’imiryango iharanira kurengera ibidukikije.
Abitabiriye iyi nama barasabwa kwibanda ku gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo ibihugu byiyemeje mu nama zabanje, aho kuguma ku masezerano mashya gusa.
Minisitiri w’Ibidukikije wa Turukiya, Murat Kurum, uyoboye iyi nama, yavuze ko intego ari uguhindura ibyemezo byafashwe mu nama zabanje ibikorwa bifatika.
Mu ngingo zitezweho kuganirwaho harimo kugabanya imyuka ya methane, kubaka imijyi ishobora guhangana n’ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, no kongera ikoreshwa ry’amashanyarazi akomoka ku mbaraga zisubira, nk’iz’izuba n’umuyaga.
Abitabiriye inama kandi baraganira ku nkunga ibihugu bikennye bikenera kugira ngo bihangane n’ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, zirimo amapfa, imyuzure n’ubushyuhe bukabije.
Turukiya ni yo yakiriye iyi nama, mu gihe Australia iyoboye ibiganiro hagati y’intumwa z’ibihugu, nyuma y’uko ibihugu byombi byumvikanye kuri ubwo buryo bwo kuyitegura.
Intego ya dogere 1,5°C ikomeje kugorana
Mu masezerano y’i Paris yo mu 2015, ibihugu byiyemeje kugerageza kugabanya izamuka ry’ubushyuhe bw’Isi rikaguma kuri dogere Celsius 1,5 ugereranyije n’igihe cyabanjirije inganda, kandi ntirirenze dogere Celsius ebyiri.
Icyakora, abahanga mu by’ikirere bavuga ko Isi iri mu nzira yo kurenga urwo rugero mu gihe kirekire, bitewe n’uko imyuka ihumanya ikirere ikomeje kwiyongera.
Ni ngombwa kumenya ko kurenga dogere Celsius 1,5 mu mwaka umwe bitavuze ko intego y’amasezerano y’i Paris yamaze kurengerwa. Iyo ntego ishingiye ku gipimo cy’ubushyuhe mpuzandengo mu gihe kirekire, aho kuba umwaka umwe gusa.
Umunyamabanga Nshingwabikorwa w’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ushinzwe imihindagurikire y’ikirere, Simon Stiell, yavuze ko nta nama imwe ishobora guhagarika imihindagurikire y’ikirere ako kanya, ariko ko buri nama igira uruhare mu gutera intambwe mu kuyirwanya.
COP31 iratangira mu gihe Isi ikomeje guhura n’ingaruka z’ubushyuhe bukabije, imvura nyinshi, imyuzure n’amapfa, bikaba byongera igitutu ku bihugu ngo bihindure ibyo byiyemeje ibikorwa bifatika.
