Ubukungu bwa Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara bushobora kuzamuka ku kigero cya 4.5% muri 2026, nk’uko bigaragazwa n’iteganyagihe rishya ry’Ikigega Mpuzamahanga cy’Imari (IMF), cyazamuye iri gereranya kivanye kuri 4.3% cyari cyateganyije muri Mata uyu mwaka.
Iri hinduka rigaragaza ko ubukungu bw’aka karere bwakomeje kwihagararaho nubwo buhanganye n’ingaruka z’intambara zo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’ifumbire, ndetse n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku masoko mpuzamahanga.
Nk’uko Reuters yabitangaje ku wa 15 Ukwakira 2026, IMF ivuga ko ubukungu bw’aka karere bushobora gukomeza kuzamuka ku kigero cya 4.5% no mu 2027. Icyakora, iki kigega kiraburira ko iryo zamuka ritavuze ko ibihugu byose bizungukira mu buryo bungana.
Ni iki gituma ubukungu bukomeza kuzamuka?
IMF igaragaza ko ivugurura ryakozwe mu micungire y’ubukungu n’imiterere y’isoko mpuzamahanga byafashije ibihugu bimwe na bimwe guhangana n’ihungabana ry’ubukungu.
Ibihugu bikungahaye ku mutungo kamere, birimo ibikomoka kuri peteroli n’amabuye y’agaciro, bishobora kungukira ku mafaranga byinjiza mu bicuruzwa byohereza mu mahanga. Icyakora, ibihugu bidafite umutungo kamere uhagije, cyane cyane ibitumiza hanze ingufu n’ibindi bikoresho by’ingenzi, bishobora guhura n’izamuka ry’ikiguzi cy’ibyo bikenera.
Iri tandukaniro risobanura ko nubwo akarere muri rusange gashobora kuzamuka ku kigero cya 4.5%, hari ibihugu bishobora kugira iterambere rikomeye mu gihe ibindi byo bikomeza guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro n’ibibazo by’amikoro.
Izamuka ry’ibiciro n’amadeni biracyahangayikishije
Nubwo ubukungu buteganyijwe kuzamuka, IMF iraburira ko ibibazo by’izamuka ry’ibiciro bishobora kugabanya inyungu abaturage bakura muri iryo terambere.
Nk’uko iki kigega kibigaragaza muri raporo yacyo yo mu Ukwakira 2026, igipimo rusange cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro giteganyijwe kuzamuka kikagera kuri 4.3% muri 2026, kikaba cyagera kuri 5% mu 2027.
Ikindi kibazo ni amafaranga ibihugu bikoresha mu kwishyura inyungu z’amadeni. Reuters yatangaje ko ayo mafaranga angana na hafi 12% by’amafaranga leta zo muri aka karere zinjiza. Ibi bishobora kugabanya ubushobozi bwazo bwo gushora imari mu bikorwa remezo, uburezi, ubuvuzi n’izindi serivisi abaturage bakeneye.
Igabanuka ry’imfashanyo mpuzamahanga na ryo riri mu bindi bishobora kongera igitutu ku bukungu, cyane cyane mu bihugu byari biyishingikirijeho mu gushyigikira gahunda z’iterambere.
Ese iri zamuka rizagabanya ubukene?
Kuzamuka kw’ubukungu ntibihita bivuga ko abaturage bose babona amafaranga menshi cyangwa ko ubukene bugabanuka ku muvuduko umwe.
IMF ishimangira ko ibihugu bigomba gukomeza gucunga neza umutungo wa leta, kugenzura izamuka ry’ibiciro, kurinda abaturage batishoboye no gushyigikira ishoramari ritanga umusaruro.
Ibi bisaba kandi kongera ubushobozi bw’abikorera, guteza imbere ubuhinzi n’inganda, no gushyiraho uburyo butuma ibihugu bibyaza umusaruro umutungo wabyo aho kuwugurisha gusa utarongererewe agaciro.
Ku baturage, inyungu nyayo y’izamuka ry’ubukungu izagaragarira mu mahirwe mashya y’akazi, kongera ubushobozi bwo kugura ibikenerwa, no kubona serivisi zinoze. Ibyo bisaba ko iterambere ritagarukira ku mibare y’ubukungu gusa, ahubwo rikagera no ku mibereho ya buri munsi.
Iteganyagihe rya IMF ritanga icyizere ko ubukungu bwa Afurika yo munsi y’Ubutayu bwa Sahara bushobora gukomeza kwihagararaho mu 2026 no mu 2027. Ariko kandi, izamuka ry’ibiciro, amadeni n’igabanuka ry’imfashanyo mpuzamahanga biracyari imbogamizi zikomeye.
Ikibazo nyamukuru ni ukumenya niba ibihugu bizashobora guhindura iryo zamuka ry’ubukungu mo imirimo mishya, kongera umusaruro no kuzamura imibereho y’abaturage benshi, aho inyungu ziguma mu mibare gusa.
